I hope you had a great weekend. It was a long one but fun filled. I got to spend a lot of one-on-one time with my son, Noah. He’s 4.5 years old and we are starting to really click as he gets into sports. I took him out to my old stomping ground, Outback Steakhouse, on Saturday. He said “this is the best Mac and Cheese I’ve ever had.” After that I took him to my high school’s baseball game in Lakewood. We watched Regis Jesuit beat Arvada West and this was his first baseball game ever. Next stop, Rockies game later this summer.
On Monday, on our way to celebrate memorial day at Pinehurst CC, I made a quick decision to visit my Oma and Opa (Grandma and Grandpa in German) at Fort Logan National Cemetery. My grandfather met my grandmother while serving in Frankfurt post WWII during the Korean War. He was a SSGT in the Air Force. This was the first time I have gone back since they were buried there together 5 years ago. It was nice to pay a visit and have the kids meet them. It was also a good reminder, as we drove through, of ALL the sacrifices others have made to protect our freedoms as Americans. There were a lot of families paying a visit and it was just one of those moments were I just felt very proud to be an American. We may not be perfect all the time, but one this is for sure, we sure strive for perfect and we sure care!
Just a reminder… we have some really strong opportunities right now to help buyers navigate the higher-rate environment.
First, one of our lending partners is offering a FREE 1-year buydown through June 30th on all purchase transactions. This is available on FHA, VA, USDA, and Conventional loans (excluding Jumbo products). Buyers receive an interest rate that is 1% lower during the first year, helping significantly with affordability and monthly payment relief.
Second, we’ve partnered with a new investor offering extremely aggressive 7-year and 10-year ARM pricing. For buyers who are more payment-sensitive or planning a shorter-term homeownership strategy, this can be an excellent alternative. We can currently offer these programs up to $2 million loan amounts with as little as 5% down.
Have a wonderful week ahead!
1 Year Look at the 10 YR Yield:
Last Week’s s Market Commentary:
Single-Family Construction Slows, But Pending Home Sales Continue to Climb
- Housing starts fell nearly 3% from March to April, with most of the decline driven by a slowdown in single-family construction.
- At the same time, building permits, a leading indicator of future construction activity, rose 5.8%, though the increase was driven primarily by multi-family projects as single-family permits moved lower.
- Builders appear to be taking a more cautious approach as they navigate ongoing economic uncertainty, elevated financing costs, and geopolitical risks. The pullback in single-family activity suggests many builders remain hesitant to aggressively expand supply until demand conditions become clearer.
- Pending home sales, a key measure of signed contracts on existing homes — rose 1.4% from March to April, beating expectations and marking the third consecutive monthly increase. Contract activity was also 3.2% higher than a year ago.
- Despite elevated mortgage rates and ongoing economic uncertainty, buyers continue to show what Lawrence Yun described as “cautious optimism.” According to the National Association of REALTORS®, demand could strengthen further if mortgage rates move back toward the lower levels seen earlier this year.
Fed Minutes Reveal Growing Policy Divide
- Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s April meeting, where policymakers left rates unchanged as expected revealed a widening divide among officials over the path of monetary policy.
- Governor Stephen Miran continued to support an immediate rate cut, while several other participants pushed for even tougher language in the Fed’s statement by removing any remaining easing bias. That hawkish sentiment extended beyond the three officials who formally dissented.
- For context, the Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs throughout the economy, including mortgage rates, though it does not directly set them.
- A “majority of participants” indicated that additional rate hikes could become appropriate if inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target. At the same time, several policymakers argued that renewed disinflation or further labor-market weakening could justify future rate cuts.
- The Fed remains caught between two competing risks, inflation that is still too high and a labor market that continues to show signs of cooling, leaving policymakers cautious and increasingly divided on the path forward.
Today’s Housing Updates:
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 0.7% year-over-year in March
- S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for March (“March” is a 3-month average of January, February and March closing prices). January closing prices include some contracts signed in November, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).
- Here is a graph from the FHFA report comparing the annual change by region for March 2026 and 2025. As expected, we are seeing significant regional differences with year-over-year price changes ranging from a 5.1% increase to a 0.9% decrease.
- The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 0.7% annual gain for March 2026, down from a 0.8% rise in the previous month.
- More than half of major U.S. metropolitan markets posted year-over-year price declines in March, with Seattle (-2.5%) displacing Denver as the weakest market and Chicago (6.1%) remaining the strongest.
- For the 10th consecutive month, inflation outpaced national home price appreciation, with March CPI running 2.6 percentage points above the 0.7% annual gain, extending the streak of negative real home price returns.
This Week’s Important Data Releases:
- MON – Markets closed. Happy Memorial Day!
- TUES – Case-Shiller Home Price Index, FHFA House Price Index, 2-Year Note Auction, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
- WED – MBA Mortgage Applications, 5-Year Note Auction,
- THURS – Jobless Claims, PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), Q1 GDP, New Home Sales, Consumer Income and Spending, 7-Year Note Auction, Durable Goods (April)
- FRI – Chicago PMI
Thanks for reading and have a great day!
